Prediction markets are giving intelligence agencies a new source of information, but they are also creating opportunities for insider trading, financial manipulation and foreign interference, according to BETINT CEO Sean Guillory.
In an Oct. 23 panel during the NEXTPredict Summit NYC, Guillory discussed exclusively with NextPredict.io how his company monitors suspicious trading activity, the growing national security implications of event contracts, and the need for stronger oversight.
He also described a potential threat beyond conventional insider trading: governments deliberately manipulating prediction-market prices to deceive foreign intelligence services.
Guillory said BETINT, a betting intelligence and analytics company, has identified instances where prediction-market movements preceded reporting on significant geopolitical developments.
According to Guillory, trading activity related to Venezuela provided signals roughly three hours before initial news coverage. [...] Guillory added that markets involving Iran also produced potentially useful signals approximately 70 minutes before reports emerged.
The panel was moderated by Chuck Todd and featured Matthew Wein, Former Rep Mondaire Jones, and Tavis Rendell.
Read the full interview on NEXTPredict
Excerpt from “BETINT CEO warns of security risks as prediction markets expand” by Erik Gibbs, NEXTPredict, October 23, 2026.